Airline Pricing

Given the observations regarding capacity, airfares are likely to fluctuate until a final ease of government lockdowns and restrictions is in effect. Pricing is currently more 'simplistic' (fewer service classes and/or more restrictions) and more expensive as a result of airline-specific priorities such as profitability and/or liquidity considerations.

*Excluding domestic flights.
Where cells are empty, COVID-19 period has insufficient sample.
Please note that these figures do not include chartered flight costs booked with ATPI in 2020, which are typically higher than commercial flights.

There may be new or hidden costs related to extra airport taxes and airline surcharges levied in relation to enhanced coronavirus airport and aircraft checks, sanitation and cleaning.

In the short-to-medium term (Q4 2020 and H1 2021) and after only partial easing of government restrictions, airfares are expected to remain between 35%-50% more expensive than 2019. This prediction is based on an exercise conducted on a number of ATPI's global marine clients. They represent 30% of the 2019 total of ATPI's marine business volumes. The exercise compares 2019 against April-August 2020 data, to identify Covid-19 related average cost impact.

Although it does not compare the same time periods or global situations, nor the exact same Origin & Destination (O&D) and passenger mix, it is a large enough sample to allow us to draw some conclusions by looking at the average fare increase and traveller mix by crew nationality and continent.

The table overleaf shows the overall average fare increase for the top crew nationalities, as well as a breakdown of the respective increases by continent, which could be used as a guideline for 2021 budgeting purposes.

In summary, travel within and to/from Asia, where lockdown started early and seat capacity is still limited/restrained shows an average increase of 55%. Whereas to/from and within Europe the average increase seems to be below 35%, which is highly affected by the average fare increase in travel between Europe & Asia at 60%, since travel within Europe increased by only around 5-10%. It goes without saying that key crewing countries such as India and Philippines, which experienced extended lockdowns and banning of commercial air travel, have seen the greatest increases due to extremely limited availability.

Travel within and to/from North and South America, where lockdown started after Asia and Europe but remains closed, shows an average increase of 25%, mainly affected by travel to/from Asia again at an increase close to 50%. Also travel to/from and within Africa shows significant fare increases of around 70%, also mainly affected by travel to/from Asia with an increase around 85% higher than 2019, as both continents are still very restricted, whereas Africa to/from Europe’s increase is around 44% due to Europe mainly being more open.